Final Kentucky Derby Rankings

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1. California Chrome – There is no questioning the talent this horse has…can he take his show on the road is the only question mark left to answer for this Kentucky Derby Favorite. He brings a huge fan following with him, and also a bit of mystery as he won’t arrive to Churchill Downs until the week of the race. One of the more unlikely and entertaining favorites in Kentucky Derby history!

2. Hoppertunity – Just keeps getting better and better with each race and workout. He’s been clearly defeated by California Chrome, but if Chrome doesn’t show up with his best effort this is the horse that can take him down. His work on Wednesday morning was very strong.

3. Wicked Strong – Can he give his best effort outside of the state of New York? Wicked Strong is one of the few horses to win from off the pace which is great news in this field that should have a fast pace, but he’s ran a few duds outside of New York. Will Churchill suit him?

4. Intense Holiday – He’s been forgotten about since finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, but I look for him to rebound with a nice race. The long Churchill Downs stretch will be to his liking.

5. Samraat – This might be the toughest horse out of them all. He’s yet to run a bad race, and in the only loss of his career he was still a game second to Wicked Strong. Has a little bit of pedigree problems, but you can’t underestimate him.

6. Tapiture – Fairly disappointing effort in the Arkansas Derby, but perhaps he can rebound at the right time. Pedigree has always been in question…looked flat going a mile and one eighth.

7. Candy Boy – The Santa Anita Derby was not a good effort at all, but I do believe he’ll improve in this one. The extra distance should be right up his alley, and hopefully they can get him to settle early and make one big run at the end.

8. Wildcat Red – He’s outrunning his pedigree distance wise so you can’t discredit this ones heart. Most likely will be close to the lead the whole way, and also will most likely be the one fighting to stay around at the end.

9. Danza – Is he for real…or is he a one hit wonder? The first Saturday in May will give us an indication, but as of now this one has me puzzled.

10. Ride On Curlin – His level of improvement throughout the prep season has been great, and many are raving about his workouts leading up to this race. Can he make those workouts translate into a big time victory? Maybe…you also have to like that Calvin Borel has jumped aboard.

11. Uncle Sigh – Pedigree wise this one is shaky, but he’s another that has a lot of heart. I don’t look at him as a horse that can win, but he might keep trying while others will quit.

12. General A Rod – I’ve wanted to like this horse for awhile now, but he just has kind of developed into a hanger. In both his last two races at Gulfstream it looked like he was going to win during the stretch, and both times he’s come up short.

13. Dance With Fate – Really great performance in the Bluegrass, but his connections even hinted that this one is a poly track specialist. Will make him beat me.

14. Commanding Curve – Definitely a logical longshot pick here. Had a pretty nice closing kick last time out, and this trainer proved to us last year that you can’t leave him off any tickets.

15. Vicar’s In Trouble – I love the talent this one has…his natural turn of foot and early speed is something to be respected. However, I just have zero confidence that he can get the mile and one quarter Derby distance. If by some chance he can he could become very dangerous.

16. Vinceremos – Forget about his performance last time out in the Bluegrass Stakes as it was obviously he didn’t care for the surface. His races on dirt have been ok, but I’m not sure he’s quite good enough to make an impact in a tough spot like the Derby. You could find worse longshots though…

17. Medal Count – Certainly looks like a poly track specialist to me. He’s had a few chances on the dirt and none have turned out to be very pretty.

18. Ring Weekend – Usually horses don’t lose the Calder Derby and then come back to win the Kentucky Derby. He was able to win the Tampa Bay Derby by getting the right trip, but that most likely won’t happen again.

19. We Miss Artie – Got into the Derby by winning the Spiral Stakes, but that race wasn’t all the impressive. It’s also worth mentioning…he’s been terrible on dirt.

20. Harry’s Holiday – Complete toss for me as even if he brought his poly track form to this one he still wouldn’t be fast enough to compete.

Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects #9

Ky

COMING SOON: In the coming weeks stayed tuned for our brand new website and logo update!!  It should be a major upgrade across the board, and we hope you all will enjoy it!
New to the Top 20: Wicked Strong
Dropped Out: Ride On Curlin

1. California Chrome – We didn’t believe for the longest time…but now we do!  He’s now the favorite to win this one with the only question being how well he’ll run over the Churchill Downs surface.  From now on I’ll refer to him as “The Freak.”

2. Tapiture – It’s finally Arkansas Derby week, and Tapiture will have a tough task in front of him.  He’ll have the services of Joel Rosario, and with a clean trip I don’t think he can be beat this week.

3. Wicked Strong – Will the real Wicked Strong please stand up?  If the Kentucky Derby was ran at Aqueduct he’d be looking really good right now.  This proves how terrible a fit the Gulfstream track was for him, and now he’s stamped himself as a legit player.  One thing that is so important to note: He’s the only horse that has won one of these preps from off the pace.

4. Hoppertunity – California Chrome may have crushed him, but I really like what I saw out of Hoppertunity in the Santa Anita Derby.  He’ll have no problem with the Kentucky Derby distance, and if he can just continue to progress he’ll have a big shot.  Ran to my expectations, just not good enough to beat the freak.

5. Constitution – Huge victory in the Florida Derby!  I liked his willingness to go through a small hole along the rail, and you had to admire how gamely he fought off the pesky Wildcat Red.  Of course zero starts at two is scary, and he also still doesn’t seem to good about sitting behind horses.  He might have the most raw talent, but his lack of experience could be his downfall.

6. Samraat – My respect for him grows with each and every race.  He may have been defeated for the first time, but it took a giant effort to do it.  His game finish to out-nose Social Inclusion at the wire was respectable, and shows me he will fight all the way to the wire.  Win or lose in Kentucky…this horse is so likable.

7. Intense Holiday – It was a wild stretch run for Intense Holiday in the Louisiana Derby as he banged into the rail and had trouble switching leads.  Still, he managed to finish second and still is one that will have a shot in Kentucky.

8. Candy Boy  – Much like Cairo Prince, Candy Boy did not run his best race after a long layoff in the Santa Anita Derby.  He still is sitting in a good spot as far as making the field, and hopefully for his sake he’ll rebound with a better effort if he makes it into the race.

9. Cairo Prince – Talk about your all time back fire…Cairo Prince now sits on the bubble of even making it to the Kentucky Derby.  It was obvious that the Florida Derby was not his best effort, but I do think he’ll bounce back and run better next time out.  Not completely writing him off…

10. Strong Mandate – Still believe this one has a big race left in him somewhere…maybe we’ll see it in the Arkansas Derby.  If not, he may not even make the race.

11. Bobby’s Kitten – It’s now or never in the Blue Grass Stakes this weekend.  He’ll most likely be the post time favorite, but can he live up to the expectations?

12. Wildcat Red – My hat goes off to this horse, he’s not supposed to be running this far but he just keeps on fighting.  I thought for sure General A Rod and Constitution would leave him in the dust in the Florida Derby, but this guy has a big heart.  He’s earned his shot in the Derby.

13. Vicar’s In Trouble – Ran a terrific race when winning the Louisiana Derby, but still can’t see him getting the mile and one-quarter distance.  Nice story to have a Louisiana bred making the race though.

14. Toast of New York – Dubai winner has a ton of things going against him, but also has an abundance of talent.  Might be classier than all of these, but can he run on dirt and will he handle the trip well?

15. General A Rod – His third place effort in the Florida Derby was a tad disappointing considering it looked like he had every chance to go by for most of the stretch run.  He’ll have a small chance in Kentucky, but might not be good enough.

16. Uncle Sigh – Picked the wrong time to run a bad race, but I still think he’ll end up running in the Kentucky Derby.  Nice horse, but the distance will likely wear him down.

17. Ring Weekend – Second place efforts in the Calder Derby usually don’t lead to wins in the Kentucky Derby.  I’ll leave him on the list based on the number of points he’s earned.

18. We Miss Artie – We’ve already seen him falter on dirt.  Nice synthetic horse, will be tough for him to win the Derby though.

19. Chitu –Not liking his chances at all at a mile and one-quarter.

20. Social Inclusion – I’ll keep him on the list for now because he might still get into the field with a lot of luck.  I actually thought his third place performance in the Wood was impressive, especially since his ride was curious to say the least.  The jock basically thought they were going to cruise home to an easy win, then the water got real deep real fast and he panicked.  Don’t forget about this one…

Free Brisnet past performances from Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager available here.

More information on the KDFW is available at www.KentuckyDerby.com.

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Weekend SimplePlays™, Free PPs and Pick 4 Selections Now Available

California Chrome (top) and Candy Boy (bottom) lead a group of 8 in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on Saturday.

California Chrome (top) and Candy Boy (bottom) lead a group of 8 in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on Saturday.

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Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects #8

Ky

COMING SOON: In the coming weeks stayed tuned for our brand new website and logo update!!  It should be a major upgrade across the board, and we hope you all will enjoy it!
New to the Top 20: Vicar’s In Trouble, Toast of New York
Dropped Out: Albano, Midnight Hawk

1. Candy Boy  – This has turned into an impossible task!  This Kentucky Derby is as wide open as ever, but somebody has to be number one so it’s Candy Boy that assumes the spot.  He runs this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby, which is starting to look like a loaded race.

2. Tapiture – He’s probably ran the two most consistent prep races, and will be favored in the Arkansas Derby in two weeks.  I’m still not sold on him getting a mile and one-quarter, but if he can he has a real shot to win.  Remember…he has a victory at Chruchill Downs.

3. Samraat – Looks to make it three Kentucky Derby prep races in a row this weekend in the Wood Memorial!  What a story this horse has been, and it would be great if he stay undefeated heading into the Kentucky Derby.  This weekend will be his toughest challenge yet…

4. California Chrome – Speaking of great stories, how about this California bred who might become the number one prospect for the Kentucky Derby after this weekend?  He’s proven to be faster (at least speed figure wise) that Candy Boy, but can he beat him head to head as the distances get longer?

5. Hoppertunity – Wow, did everyone see the workout he put in last weekend?  This could be the horse to look out for, as he’s definitely improving at the right time.  Baffert indicated that the Santa Anita Derby this weekend will be next for Hoppertunity, as the horse looks ready to roll.

6. Constitution – Huge victory in the Florida Derby!  I liked his willingness to go through a small hole along the rail, and you had to admire how gamely he fought off the pesky Wildcat Red.  Of course zero starts at two is scary, and he also still doesn’t seem to good about sitting behind horses.  He might have the most raw talent, but his lack of experience could be his downfall.

7. Intense Holiday – It was a wild stretch run for Intense Holiday in the Louisiana Derby as he banged into the rail and had trouble switching leads.  Still, he managed to finish second and still is one that will have a shot in Kentucky.

8 Ring Weekend – It’s amazing that this horse has moved up eighth.  He’ll have the oddest final Derby prep race of all time…The Calder Derby.

9. Social Inclusion – Time to find out what this horse is all about in the Wood Memorial this weekend.  He’s pretty much the only true wildcard left out of the bunch.  He could be a total freak, or he could flop when up against stakes company.  It will be fascinating to watch.

10. Uncle Sigh – He’ll get one more swing at Samraat this weekend, but I think the added distance will probably hurt him.  I do expect him to give us another gutsy performance, and one that might be good enough to propel him into the Kentucky Derby.

11. Cairo Prince – Talk about your all time back fire…Cairo Prince now sits on the bubble of even making it to the Kentucky Derby.  It was obvious that Saturday was not his best effort, but I do think he’ll bounce back and run better next time out.  Not completely writing him off…

12. Strong Mandate – Still believe this one has a big race left in him somewhere…maybe we’ll see it in the Arkansas Derby.

13. Bobby’s Kitten – If this horse can handle the dirt it’s looking more and more like he can really be a player.  Personally I think he’s classier than almost anyone on this list.  The plan is to run in the Bluegrass Stakes in two weeks…if he wins that one I’ll start believing.

14. Wildcat Red – My hat goes off to this horse, he’s not supposed to be running this far but he just keeps on fighting.  I thought for sure General A Rod and Constitution would leave him in the dust in the Florida Derby, but this guy has a big heart.  He’s earned his shot in the Derby.

15. Vicar’s In Trouble – Ran a terrific race when winning the Louisiana Derby, but still can’t see him getting the mile and one-quarter distance.  Nice story to have a Louisiana bred making the race though.

16. Toast of New York – Dubai winner has a ton of things going against him, but also has an abundance of talent.  Might be classier than all of these, but can he run on dirt and will he handle the trip well?

17. General A Rod – His third place effort in the Florida Derby was a tad disappointing considering it looked like he had every chance to go by for most of the stretch run.  He’ll have a small chance in Kentucky, but might not be good enough.

18. We Miss Artie – We’ve already seen him falter on dirt.  Nice synthetic horse, will be tough for him to win the Derby though.

19. Chitu –Not liking his chances at all at a mile and one-quarter.

20. Ride On Curlin – Showed his class in the Rebel Stakes last time in a big way, and with another solid effort in the Arkansas Derby he could be a nice “under the radar” prospect.  He’s had trouble putting two in a row together though.

Free Brisnet past performances from Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager available here.

More information on the KDFW is available at www.KentuckyDerby.com.

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Kentucky Derby Point Standings with Analysis

Samraat is Your Current Kentucky Derby Points Leader

Samraat is Your Current Kentucky Derby Points Leader

1. Samraat – 60

Next Race: Wood Memorial on April 5th

Derby Status: Locked in

2. Hoppertunity – 55

Next Race: Santa Anita Derby April 5th or Arkansas Derby April 12th

Derby Status: Locked in

3. Intense Holiday – 53

Next Race: Louisiana Derby March 30th

Derby Status: Locked in

4. Wildcat Red – 50

Next Race: Florida Derby March 30th

Derby Status: Locked in

5. Ring Weekend – 50

Next Race: Questionable

Derby Status: Locked in

6. California Chrome – 50

Next Race: Santa Anita Derby April 5th

Derby Status: Locked In

7. Tapiture – 42

Next Race: Arkansas Derby April 12th

Derby Status: Locked in

8. Midnight Hawk – 32

Next Race: Sunland Derby March 23rd

Derby Status: In Good Shape

9. Albano – 24

Next Race: Louisiana Derby March 30th

Derby Status: In Good Shape

10. Uncle Sigh – 24

Next Race: Wood Memorial April 5th

Derby Status: In Good Shape

11. Vinceremos – 20

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: On the Bubble

12. Vicar’s In Trouble – 20

Next Race: Louisiana Derby March 30th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

13. General A Rod – 20

Next Race: Florida Derby March 30th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

14. Ride On Curlin – 15

Next Race: Arkansas Derby April 12th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

15. Havana – 14

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Highly unlikely….like zero chance….

16. Cairo Prince – 14

Next Race: Florida Derby March 30th

Derby Status: Very likely, but no lock considering the point situation

17. Honor Code – 14

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Unlikely

18. Kristo – 14

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: On the Bubble

19. Tamarando – 12

Next Race: Turfway Spiral Stakes March 22nd

Derby Status: Fairly good chance

20. Strong Mandate – 11

Next Race: Arkansas Derby April 12th

Derby Status: On the bubble

21. Bond Holder – 11

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Zero Chance

22. Rise Up – 10

Next Race: Louisiana Derby March 30th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

23. We Miss Artie – 10

Next Race: Turfway Spiral Stakes March 22nd

Derby Status: On the Bubble

24. Candy Boy – 10

Next Race: Santa Anita Derby April 5th

Derby Status: Very likely, but has to run well in final prep

25. In Trouble – 10

Next Race: Wood Memorial April 5th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

26. Noble Moon – 10

Next Race: Wood Memorial April 5th

Derby Status: On the Bubble

27. Ami’s Holiday – 10

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Highly unlikely

28. Cleburne – 10

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

29. Tanzanite Cat – 10

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

30. Surfing U S A – 10

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

31. Conquest Titan – 9

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Still a slight chance

32. Casiguapo – 5

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

33. Financial Mogul – 5

Next Race: Wood Memorial April 5th

Derby Status: Doubtful

34. Classic Giacnroll – 5

Next Race: Wood Memorial April 5th

Derby Status: Doubtful

35. East Hall – 5

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

36. Schoolofhardrocks – 5

Next Race: Santa Anita Derby April 5th

Derby Status: Doubtful

37. Scotland – 4

Next Race: Maiden Special Weight

Derby Status: Zero Chance

38. Laddie Boy – 4

Next Race: Turfway Spiral Stakes

Derby Status: Doubtful

39. Chitu – 4

Next Race: Sunland Derby March 23rd

Derby Status: On the Bubble

40. Smart Cover – 4

Next Race: ???

Derby Status: Doubtful

Withers Stakes (Grade 3) Preview

Samraat is our Pick in a Thin Withers Stakes

Samraat is our Pick in a Thin Withers Stakes

Racing Dudes Picks

Win – 5

Exacta – 1,5 Box

Trifecta – 1,5/1,5/4

Horses to Use in Vertical Wagers – 1,5

Race Shape

Speed –Uncle Sigh, Street Gent, Samraat

Stalkers – Honorable Jungle

Closers – Scotland, Classic Giacnroll

Racing Dudes Projected Order of Finish

#5 Samraat (NY) – When comparing Samraat and Uncle Sigh it really could go either way, but I went with the most established horse and put him on top.  Samraat is three for three, and last time out won a $100,000 State bred Stakes by SIXTEEN lengths.  Nobody has even been close to this horse, and his nature speed could easily run these into the ground.  The waters are sure to get deeper the farther he goes down the Derby Trail, but today I think he’s in with a group that he can handle.

#1 Uncle Sigh (NY) – Two really strong races in a row has some in New York buzzing about the potential this one has.  Last time out was a powerful fourteen length victory over state bred company which earned him a large speed figure.  There is no doubting this will be a jump up in class, but notice that according to most this is a two-horse race between him and Samraat who is also New York bred.  This is the logical spot to put him in, and he’ll have every chance to win.

#4 Classic Giacnroll (KY) – The one thing that might give this one a legit chance in the pace of this race.  Samraat, Uncle Sigh, and Street Gent will most likely all want the lead, and if they go too fast up front Classic Giacnroll could be the beneficiary.  He was only beaten a couple of lengths last time out by Noble Moon, and that horse would probably be favored over the top dogs in here.  In with a chance with the right set up…

#6 Honorable Judge (PA) – Parx shipper has been a monster at his home track, but his only start away from Parx was a tenth place effort in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs.  Today is a much easier spot than the Iroquois, but I still can’t get that race out of my mind.  He must prove to me he can do it outside of Parx before I get too excited.

#2 Street Gent (KY) – After struggling badly in his first three races, Street Gent picked it up last time out with a nice maiden score.  He gets thrown into Grade 3 action today, but this field isn’t much so it’s not a bad spot for him.  However, in his last race he was alone on the lead, and that will not happen in this one.  Expect the pace pressure to hurt his chances here.

#3 Scotland (KY) – Even though this race has come up short, being a maiden in a stakes at this point of the year is still not good.  It wouldn’t be crazy to think he might hit the board, but probably will just end up being over matched in this one.

TwinSpires Million Road to Derby Showdown