The Apple Blossom Handicap (Grade 1) Preview

1. Close Hatches

Race Record: (9) 6-2-0

Earnings: $1,487,300

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Trainer: Bill Mott

Graded Stakes Victories: 4

The Verdict: Have to love the way Mott came to Oaklawn Park last time for the Azeri to test the waters before committing to this race.  He was rewared for the decision as Close Hatches was a decisive winner of the Azeri, and now you have to love her chances in this one.  The field has come up a bit short, and there is absolutely no doubting who the class of this race is.  If she shows up with here “A” game…they are all running for second.

2. Rose to Gold

Race Record: (12) 6-1-0

Earnings: $963,509

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Trainer: Sal Santoro

Graded Stakes Victories: 3

The Verdict: Against ungraded or Grade 3 company Rose to Gold has been very impressive, but she is yet to tackle tougher competition with much luck.  Her race two back in the Houston Ladies Classic had me thinking she had taken a big leap forward, but she went backwards next time out finishing seventh in the Sabin Stakes at Gulfstream.  She does hold two victories at Oaklawn Park, but I don’t look for her to make it three.

3. Stanwyck

Race Record: (13) 3-2-5

Earnings: $304,250

Jockey: Gary Stevens

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Graded Stakes Victories: 1

The Verdict:Trainer John Shirreffs thrilled the masses at Oaklawn twice by bringing the great Zenyatta to the Apple Blossom, but make no mistake…this is not Zenyatta.  Stanwyck has just one graded stakes win to her credit, however she has run decent in her last couple of races against graded company; finishing third in both the Santa Maria and Santa Margarita Stakes.  Maybe she is a late developing horse, but she won’t be good enough here.

4. On Fire Baby

Race Record: (13) 5-1-1

Earnings: $761,974

Jockey: Joe Johnson

Trainer: Gary “Red Dog” Hartlage

Graded Stakes Victories: 4

The Verdict:The defending Apple Blossom champion is back again this year, and should be ready to fire a big race!  Last time out Close Hatches soundly defeated On Fire Baby in the Azeri Stakes, but it was clear On Fire Baby needed that race.  Now she should be fit and ready to roll, and with the home track on her side I give her a small chance to pull off the upset.  She’s clearly the logical alternative if you don’t want to play Close Hatches at low odds

5. Let Faith Arise

Race Record: (10) 5-2-1

Earnings: $380,284

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

Graded Stakes Victories: 1

The Verdict:She’s coming into this race off a Grade 1 victory, but you have to question the toughness of the field she faced last time out.  This one has always ran solid races, but not until recently has she moved up to Graded Stakes company at bigger tracks.  Perhaps another that is a late bloomer, but I just can’t see her matching up well with a horse like Close Hatches.

Blinkers Off 064: Oaklawn Park Stakes Racing Podcast Released

Blinkers Off has released a new episode!

Blinkers Off provides weekly insights into the world of horse racing including race selections and previews, handicapping methods and exclusive stories.

You can view all episodes of Blinkers Off by visiting our podcast page.

Blinkers Off 064: Oaklawn Park Stakes Racing – March 14, 2014

The Thoroughbred Racing Dudes preview a huge weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park including the Grade II Rebel Stakes, Grade II Azeri Stakes and Grade III Razorback Handicap.

[audio https://racingdudes.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/blinkers-off-064.mp3|titles=Blinkers Off 064: Oaklawn Park Stakes Racing]

Oaklawn Preview Part 3 of 6: The Older Females

On Fire Baby

While the Arkansas Derby will always get the most attention at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom Handicap actually may be the most productive race of the entire meet.  It serves as the main objective for older fillies and mares at Oaklawn, and also brings in quite the competition from around the country.  Horse of the Year winners Zenyatta and Havre De Grace have won this race in recent years, and last year it was local horse On Fire Baby that put her name next to those greats as she held off a determined Tiz Miz Sue.  The Apple Blossom is one of only two Grade 1 races that Oaklawn has, and will be running on Friday April 11th, which is the day before the Arkansas Derby.

The headliner of this year’s quest for the Apple Blossom is obvious: the previously mentioned defending champion On Fire Baby.  Last year was one of the more incredible performances of the meet as she was able to pull off the victory in wire to wire fashion off an ELEVEN month layoff.  That long layoff had her going off at odds of 12-1 which rewarded her loyal local following greatly.  However, the rest of her 2013 campaign was probably not what her connections had in mind, as she hit the board in just one of three other starts.  The second place finisher of last year’s race Tiz Miz Sue went on to have big success after that narrow defeat, but is now retired so that will be one less horse On Fire Baby will have to worry about. As usual, On Fire Baby will be coming off another layoff when she arrives at Oaklawn this year.  The now five-year old will probably run more than once this year at Oaklawn, but no specific plans are set.

Another locally based horse that should warrant plenty of attention is Don’t Tell Sophia.  She created a tremendous amount of buzz early on in the meet last year when she dominated both the Pippin and Bayakoa Stakes.  Those two races landed her in the Azeri and Apple Blossom, where she ran strongly again finishing second and third respectively.  After Oaklawn she did not run again until October, but she did come back strong winning a Grade 2 at Churchill, and finishing second in another.  She’s pointing towards the Pippin Stakes on January 18th as her opening race, and I expect her to dominate the early races once again.

A big factor in this division will be the newly turned four-year olds that will now be asked to step up in class and compete against the older mares.  Last year Oaklawn had what could have been their weakest three-year old filly crops in years, but there are still a couple worth mentioning.  Marathon Lady probably went on to have the best three-year campaign out of the local group last year.  Although she did not record a win, she did hit the board in three Graded races outside of Oaklawn Park.  However, she has not recorded a workout yet at Oaklawn, so plans could be up in the air at this time.  One sleeper we have in the back of minds is Hung the Moon, who ran well at Oaklawn Park in 2013 as a three-year old.  She did not run well outside of Oaklawn, and has been off since June, but has had a lot of nice works since returning.

Of course other than last year the shippers have dominated the Apple Blossom.  It’s always hard to speculate this early about who might show up for the Racing Festival of the South, but you can bet that there will be plenty of big time horses pointing towards those races.  Oaklawn is always hopeful to attract top horses such as Beholder, and it’s never out of the question considering the success California shippers usually have here.  Who ends up coming is an unknown factor, but what is not unknown to anyone is how strong and entertaining this division has been over the last few years.  With the class and potential of this year’s group, I see that tradition carrying on once again.

Apple Blossom Handicap: Tiz Miz Sue Seeks Grade 1 Victory

Tiz Miz Sue Looks for Her First Grade 1 Victory

When it comes to Oaklawn Park Tiz Miz Sue has become a fixture, and a local fan favorite.  The six-year-old mare is currently in her fourth campaign at Oaklawn, and is thriving once again.  Last year she ran the race of her life when winning the Azeri Stakes, and this year she was able to repeat in that race defeating superstar My Miss Aurelia, as well as local sensation Don’t Tell Sophia.  She was unable to parlay last years Azeri into Apple Blossom gold, but this race could set up a little better for her.

Free Past Performances

If Tiz Miz Sue is able to get the job done, it will be her first Grade 1 victory, and will also put her over the million dollar mark in career earnings.  It would be fitting for her to accomplish this feat here at Oaklawn, and would certainly make for quite the celebration for Oaklawn regulars Steve Hobby and Cresran Stables.  The task is never easy when trying to win a Grade 1, and this race will be no different.

The headlining shippers include two Kentucky Oaks participants for last year: Grace Hall and Summer Applause.  Grace Hall won the Delaware and Indiana Oaks last year, and was able to finish fourth in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic last November.  This year she’s made one start, finishing a distant third in the Sabin Stakes to Royal Delta.  One big advantage Grace Hall will have is jockey Joel Rosario.  There is no hotter jockey than Rosario right now, as he’s winning races at an alarming rate.  Rosario last rode in the Apple Blossom in 2011, when he finished second to eventual Horse of the Year Havre De Grace aboard Switch

Summer Applause comes into the race off a victory at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Top Flight Handicap.  Her last race was the first under trainer Chad Brown, and it can be argued her form and momentum might actually make her more dangerous than Grace Hall.  Rajiv Maragh has the mount for the former fourth place Kentucky Oaks finisher.  Kentucky Oaks graduates have won this race the last two years, so it’s definitely worth noting Grace Hall and Summer Applause participation and success in that race.

The other four entrants are all locals, headed by Don’t Tell Sophia.  She was a runaway winner in both the Pippin and Bayakoa Stakes, and was second in the Azeri Stakes last time out.  The horse had every right to regress a little last time out after two top races, and might rebound this time out.  Another interesting local is On Fire Baby, who will be making her first start since last May.  She was the winner of the Honeybee Stakes here last March, and was fifth in the Kentucky Oaks.  The layoff is a concern, but she should be considered a wild card in this one.

She’s All In and Bryan’s Jewel round out the field.  She’s All In was the fourth place finisher of the Azeri Stakes, and the second place finisher of the Bayakoa Stakes.  Byran’s Jewel has raced once at Oaklawn this meet, winning an allowance race fairly easily.

Kentucky Derby Betting: Wisdom of Crowds Results

You spoke, we listened.  To recap, we used the idea of Wisdom of Crowds to select our bets.  The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.

We asked you to select your Kentucky Derby and Oaks winners and we would compile the results to come up with our “crowds” best bets for the Kentucky Derby.  The results are in, but let’s first take a look at the fields:

Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) Preview

Free Past Performances

Likely Winners:

#6 Broadway’s Alibi (KY) – This is an all or nothing type pick, but after studying this field I feel like Broadway’s Alibi is the only horse that has shown true greatness this year.  Her race in the Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream was incredible, and she followed it up with another awesome performance in the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct.  With that being said, I can understand why many are concerned with her getting the distance of a mile and one eighth.  It is definitely a legitimate question, but the fact is we really have no idea if she can get it or not.  She’s never ran past a mile in her entire career.  I like that she is out of Vindication, a horse that won wire to wire at a mile and one sixteenth and a mile and one eight.  Her dam side is strictly sprinting, but it has always been said that you get your distance pedigree from the sire so I’m actually fairly confident she can get the distance.  Many are worried about a pace meltdown in this race, but I am not.  Broadway’s Alibi is the speed of the speed.  Nobody in this race can press her in my opinion, so it’s fairly simple to me…if she gets the distance, she wins this easy.  If not, well I will look like a moron which wouldn’t be the first time!

#1 On Fire Baby (KY) – Even though there are a couple of things I dislike about On Fire Baby coming into the race, her performance in the Honeybee at Oaklawn, plus her dominate performances at Churchill Downs really have me thinking she’ll be the one to pick up the pieces if Broadway’s Alibi falters.  However, we must discuss the negatives with her.  She hasn’t raced in over six weeks, and she draws a very tough post on the rail.  Where they place her will be interesting.  She has decent early speed, so will they send her out of the gate, or will they hold her back and make one big run with her towards the end?  Hopefully her talent level and affection for the Churchill Downs surface will overcome the negatives.  With a better draw I may have picked her as my top selection, as I really believe this is the best horse in the field.

Oaklawn Report #14: The Recap

First Annual Racing Dudes Oaklawn Awards

Alternation

Horse of the meet: Bodemeister – Even though he only ran once at Oaklawn, the Dudes just can’t deny him this award.  His Arkansas Derby win was the most impressive we’ve seen since Curlin.  Alternation was a very close second for this award, but Bodemeister could end up being the best three-year old to come around in quite some time.

Older Male of the Meet: Alternation – No debating this one!  Alternation won all three stakes he ran in at Oaklawn, including the feature event for older horses at the meet: The Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.  He’s stamped himself as a legit contender in the older Handicap division.

Older Female of the Meet: Absinthe Minded – Even though Plum Pretty won the Apple Blossom, this award goes to Absinthe Minded.  She ran four times at Oaklawn this year, winning twice and finishing second in the Apple Blossom.  Her four solid performances gave her the ever so slight edge over Plum Pretty’s one big run.

Racing Festival of the South Preview

The Arkansas Derby:

Secret Circle

Probable Starters: Optimizer, Bodemeister, Secret Circle, Scatman, Stat, Heavy Breathing, Handsome Mike, Najjaar, Sabercat, On Fire Baby

The main event of the Racing Festival of the South is the Arkansas Derby.  Over the years the Arkansas Derby has been one of the most productive preps in the nation.  This years race is shaping up to be a classic.  Secret Circle has won both the Southwest and Rebel Stakes, and will look to be the first horse to sweep the Oaklawn three-year old series since Lawyer Ron did it in 2006.  Standing in his way is his stable mate Bodemeister, who finished second to highly regarded Creative Cause in the San Felipe, and Optimizer who nearly caught Secret Circle at the wire in the Rebel Stakes.

One wild card in the Arkansas Derby might be On Fire Baby if they choose to run the filly against the boys.  She produced the fastest mile and one-sixteenth race of the Oaklawn meet, but struggled in her only start against the boys when she finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes.  Still, there is little doubting her ability.  If she can run back to her last race she not only can win the Arkansas Derby, but her chances in the Kentucky Derby would be decent.

Rounding out the field will most likely be two deep closers in Najjaar and Sabercat, and two shippers from the Todd Pletcher barn: Heavy Breathing and Stat.  If the pace is hot, Najjaar and Sabercat could loom large.  They both made average closing efforts in the Rebel.  The Pletcher duo looks a bit overwhelmed on paper, but you can never count Pletcher out.  Stat has solid breeding, and has had some decent races in the past.  Heavy Breathing was third in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway last time out.

Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects #6

1. Union Rags – He holds on to his number one spot for another week, but I don’t believe he is above and beyond them like so many others think.  We need to see another big performance from him in the Florida Derby.

2. Creative Cause – His win in the San Felipe was great, but it was the gallop out that really has me sky-high on Creative Cause.  After the wire, Creative Cause galloped out 12 lengths in front of the rest of the horses.  This tells me he may have only just been getting started in the mile and one-sixteenth race.  That’s great news for fans that are backing him in the Kentucky Derby.

3. El Padrino – He slips down to number three this week, but has done nothing wrong.  He’s most likely heading back to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby.

4. Hansen – Hansen is currently in Kentucky, but will be shipped back to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial in April.  The question of how far he wants to run still looms large, but he’s a fast horse and showed us he can rate in his last race.

Secret Circle vs. Scatman Round Two in the Rebel

5. Secret Circle – He’ll be making a return trip to Oaklawn this week where he’ll square off against a solid field if the Rebel.  Just like Hansen, there are questions about how far he wants to run as well  The Rebel will be a nice test to see if he can get a mile and one-sixteenth.

6. Bodemeister – In just his third lifetime start Bodemeister showed great maturity in the San Felipe Stakes, where he finished second to Creative Cause.  You’d have to think this horse is just going to get better and better so this is one to really keep an eye on.  It looks like the Santa Anita Derby in April is where Bodemeister is pointing.

Oaklawn Report #9

3 Stars of the Week:

-1st Star – Alternation (KY) – Any sports fan will tell you that one of the most important things you can to is win your games at home, and that is exactly was Alternation did this Saturday when he won the Razorback Handicap by two lengths.  Alternation had already dominated the local competition once this season in the Essex Stakes, but in the Razorback he had to take on California shipper Tapizar.  Tapizar came in highly regarded, but was really no match at any time for Alternation.  When the gates opened, Alternation found himself on the lead for the first time in his career, with Tapizar sitting off him in second.  As they turned for home Tapizar came up to challenge, but was put away with ease by Alternation.  The Oaklawn Handicap is next for him as he’ll try to make it three for three to close out the Oaklawn meet.

-2nd Star – On Fire Baby (KY) – After much hype from trainer Gary Hartlage, On Fire Baby showed us her stuff this Saturday.  It’s a shame she ran on the same day as Alternation, because she deserves the number one star.  Amie’s Dini was able to jump out to the lead in the race, while On Fire Baby stalked in second.  As they made the turn Amie’s Dini dug deep and was able to hold off On Fire Baby for much of the stretch before finally getting passed a few lengths before the wire.  On Fire Baby may have stamped herself as the favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, but there are talks that she may be pointed towards a date with the boys in the Kentucky Derby.  Her next start will be here at Oaklawn, in either the Fantasy Stakes or the Arkansas Derby.